I've already seen headlines at MSN.com that say Romney gets the Mormon vote. I wonder if this is the MSM's attempt to further rile up Evangelicals in hopes of getting MSM's favoite RINO--Mike Huckabee--more votes in future elections.
But here are the facts.
Mitt got 94% of the vote in Nevada. That means he did worse than Bush in 2004 in the general election were "W" got 95% of the Mormon vote in the entire country.
Bush isn't Mormon. Mormons like conservatives. Romney's a conservative.
UPDATE: Here is the link to the Standard Weekly article that indicates 95% of Mormons voted for Bush in 2004:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Utilities/printer_preview.asp?idArticle=5672&R=ED3458A
And here's the actual quote (about halfway down the page):
Most Mormons would be thrilled at the prospect of a Romney candidacy, and not just because Romney is a Republican and Mormons overwhelmingly vote Republican (they went 95 to 5 percent for Bush in 2004, up from 88 to 12 percent in 2000).
Also, Jeff Fuller did some analysis of the exit polls, and when you calculate the numbers of Mormons (Latter-day Saints) who voted in the Democratic Caucus in Nevada, Mitt actually received 73% of the Mormon vote in the Silver State. Click here for Jeff's analysis.
But here are the facts.
Mitt got 94% of the vote in Nevada. That means he did worse than Bush in 2004 in the general election were "W" got 95% of the Mormon vote in the entire country.
Bush isn't Mormon. Mormons like conservatives. Romney's a conservative.
UPDATE: Here is the link to the Standard Weekly article that indicates 95% of Mormons voted for Bush in 2004:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Utilities/printer_preview.asp?idArticle=5672&R=ED3458A
And here's the actual quote (about halfway down the page):
Most Mormons would be thrilled at the prospect of a Romney candidacy, and not just because Romney is a Republican and Mormons overwhelmingly vote Republican (they went 95 to 5 percent for Bush in 2004, up from 88 to 12 percent in 2000).
Also, Jeff Fuller did some analysis of the exit polls, and when you calculate the numbers of Mormons (Latter-day Saints) who voted in the Democratic Caucus in Nevada, Mitt actually received 73% of the Mormon vote in the Silver State. Click here for Jeff's analysis.
posted by James Phillips | 1:36 PM
8 Comments:
I want Mitt to win so much I've made a stylish shirt design especially for women to show their support. I call it my "Romney Chick" shirt...
http://www.cafepress.com/zegear/4586699
Good luck Mitt, I'll be voting for you!
Nice point. My take is that this is more identity polics among LDS people.
As you point out, 95% of LDS people voted or Bush in '04. Mormons are conservative, in general.
As Mormons, they don't have problems with Mitt's faith (as so many others do) and therefore much more likely to vote for Mitt over the others:
Huck: religiously divisive
McCain: not conservative
Rudy: not conservative
Fred: conservative, but not much of a worker
Ron Paul: extreme
Woops. I meant to say this is more THAN identity politics among LDS people.
Mormons are usually very conservative and saw a similar spirit in Mitt Romney. And they (obviously) don't despise or fear Mitt's faith.
Can you please provide the citation for the statement that Bush received 95% of the Mormon vote. I don't want to pass on rumor. Also, what percent of the Mormon vote did Bush receive in the primaries when Mormons had several Republican candidates to vote for?
Jeff Fuller clarifies some of these numbers (http://blog.electromneyin2008.com/2008/01/19/94-of-nevada-mormons-did-not-vote-for-mitt-contrary-to-media-reports/)
Here's what Jeff points out:
Dems Exit polling shows that 3% of those participating in the Democratic were Mormons.
I’m guessing NONE of them voted for Romney (sarcasm intended).
With voting totals around 115,000 in the Dem race (I saw that number on Fox News) that would come out to approximately 3500 LDS voters NOT voting for ROmney.
By contrast, 25% of the GOP caucus in NV that were Mormon with nearly 45,000 total GOP voters — therefore around 11250 LDS voters and 94% of them were for Romney . . . but that means nearly 500 were not.
So, 4000 LDS in Nevada voted “Not for Romney” and 10,750 voted for Romney. That breaks down to 73% LDS for Romney and 27% LDS that were not for Romney. Not quite the absolutely robotic block-voting groups that many media outlets are trying to play up.
Interesting, eh?
So, the point is 94% of LDS people voting in the REPUBLICAN primary voted for Mitt.
Of all Mormons participating yesterday, only 73% voted for a REPUBLICAN (about 10,750 people) However, 27% of Mormons (about 4000) participating on Saturday did NOT vote for Romney.
Instead, these 4000 Mormons voted in the DEMOCRATIC caucus, voting for Hillary, Obama, or Edwards.
I repeat, as Jeff points out in the earlier comment, only 73% (about 10,750) of Mormons voting in Nevada yesterday caucused for a Republican (with 94% voting for Mitt). 27% (about 4000) of Mormons voting yesterday voted for a Dem.
Hope these last two comments make sense.
Point is, Mormons in Nevada think for themselves and 27% did not like Mitt.
Media has not done Mitt Romney any favors, that's for sure.
Any LDS person knows, there are clusters of Mormons ... birds of a feather, and all. With the huge numbers of Mormons reported by those exit polls, it is evident the pollsters were in heavily Mormon areas asking the poll questions questions instead of an actual cross-section of the population. The poll results would have been skewed from the onset.
Repeatedly media has cited "very large" Mormon base in Nevada. I'm not sure where they draw the line on very large but according to Adherents.com the Mormon population in Nevada is only about 6% of the total population ... Adherents is a bit dated but supported by Nevada Population 2,565,382 per US Census estimates and the Nevada LDS membership of 169,714.
I just find it especially curious that media at every level fails to acknowledge and comment on the fact Mitt Romney has led the pack on delegates and much of the time has had more delegates than all other GOP candiates combined! Even with a 4th place finish in SC he still has 72 to McC's second place 38 delegates.
I'm hoping you can pass these comments on to Mitt - can't figure out how to contact him on his site...
We live in Show Low - most people we know can't stand McCain, a dishonest jerk of a politician - we had to tell him we would NEVER vote for him to stop his mailings!
That said, we really like what Romney has to say - and hope he's for real. We want to pass on three suggestions for him:
(1) Continue to focus on the positives - people need to hear more of "Have no fear, America" messages - like the one he ran recently in FL - and less of criticisms aimed at individuals (even though many of us agree). You might recall we had a great candidate running for governor here, but he kept bashing Napolitano so much that she WON!
(2)Any chance he could link up with J.C. Watts? We'd love to see that combination - he's like a Boy Scout with a great image and personality - and very smart!
(3)Just started reading "The Majesty of God's Law" by W. Cleon Skousen (interesting to note that the W stands for Willard - heard that Mitt's first initial is W and stands for Willard, too - is that true?) -- anyway, in this book, Cleon outlines clear solutions for returning to the original principles of the Constitution - great resource!!
Thanks for the forum -- we are pulling for Mitt Romney to win Arizona -- that'd be a HUGE message on McCain, huh?!!
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