AZ for Mitt

A blog dedicated to informing Arizonans about Mitt Romney and the campaign for the 2008 presidential nomination.

Friday, November 02, 2007

A recent poll out of South Carolina adds to the building evidence debunking Guiliani's main myth (and main plank of his candidacy) that he's the most electable Republican in the general election:

In a head-to-head match up between Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton, 7.6% of Democrats would cross over to vote for Rudy versus only 5.1% of Republican crossing for Hillary, a net 2.5% gain for Giuliani. However, that gain would be offset by the fact that more than 1 in 10 Republicans (11.2%) said they would vote for "neither" candidate or plain "wouldn't vote" in a Rudy-Hillary scenario, while only 4.9% of Democrats indicated they would do the same.

South Carolina isn't alone. Throughout more conservative states, enough voters will vote for a third-party candidate or not vote at all if Guiliani is the GOP's nominee. That means will we saying President Hillary for the next four years.

The poll also had Romney in a statistical tie for first place:

New Winthrop /ETV poll in South Carolina (Oct 7-28, 522 likely GOP primary voters, MoE 4.29%, and 534 likely Democratic primary voters, MoE 4.24%).

The big news in the poll comes on the Republican side, where Romney, Giuliani and Thompson are in a statistical tie for the lead, with nearly 1 in 3 likely primary voters still undecided:

Thompson 17.9
Giuliani 16.5
Romney 16.5
McCain 9.2
Huckabee 5.4
Paul 2.1
Undecided 29.9

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